Avinash Chauhan continues his analytics-based series to project future NBA 3&D players as he looks at UNC Greensboro senior forward Kyrin Galloway
THE PROBLEM
As I discussed last week, the three-pointer is a weapon that has rapidly gained importance, especially over the last decade. Consequently, players that can both shoot from downtown at a high clip and have a beneficial defensive impact are gaining relevance in today’s NBA. These players, dubbed 3&D players, are at a premium right now, and they are essential to building a championship contender.
However, NBA teams are notoriously poor at identifying 3&D players right out of college. This is especially evident when taking into consideration that most major 3&D NBA players were drafted relatively late or even not drafted at all. This is a major problem, as teams are letting high-impact players slip through the cracks rather than effectively utilizing draft capital.
THE SOLUTION: 3&DTEND
To quantify the likelihood of a prospect becoming a competent 3&D player in the NBA, I developed the metric 3&D Tendency (3&Dtend). To begin, I took 100 players in NCAA Division 1 with the highest three-point tendency (measured from 0 to 1). Using this as my data group, I used the following formula to calculate my metric:
3&D Tendency = (True Shooting Percentage)/(Defensive Rating)
= (PTS/(2(FGA+0.44FTA)(Defensive Rating))
I then graphed 3&Dtend against offensive rating, demonstrating a clear correlation. Using this data, along with other advanced stats, I created a list of prospects who have the ability to become vital role players at the next level. Last week, I examined sleeper forward Spencer Jones. This week, I’ll be discussing Australian forward Kyrin Galloway.
PLAYER #2: KYRIN GALLOWAY
Kyrin Galloway is one of the most intriguing players in the sample. One reason is that despite being a college senior, he is still only 20 years old. Consequently, the combination of upside and experience that he possesses is truly unparalleled, and it could make for significant draft value. Additionally, Galloway is phenomenal on both ends of the court, and his athleticism and frame both stand out among the rest of the data sample. Let’s take a look at how Kyrin Galloway matches up in each category.
OFFENSE:
Galloway is by far the best interior scorer in the data sample. He was a perfect 11 for 11 on dunks, ranking first in the data sample. Overall, he was an excellent 19 for 23 on close two pointers. This is particularly impressive when you consider that he usually plays around the perimeter, not in the paint. Galloway achieves this type of interior volume despite his usual location on offense because he is constantly shuffling around the perimeter. When he sees an opportunity for a putback dunk or an alley-oop, he goes for it. This demonstrates Galloway’s quickness, high basketball IQ, and athleticism.
Galloway is also a solid shooter. As insinuated by his presence in the data sample, he mainly plays as a stretch 4 on offense, often playing off the catch-and-shoot three. He has a 54% effective field goal percentage and 55.8% true shooting percentage, both of which are above average. He also went 20 for 25 from the charity stripe, good for an outstanding 80% free throw percentage. Since free throw percentage is highly correlated to NBA three-point success, this bodes well for Galloway’s NBA prospects.
However, Galloway does have some flaws on the offensive end. The most striking one is his horrific accuracy on long two attempts, as Galloway is shooting a putrid 2 for 11 on the season. This presents a dilemma of sorts, as accuracy on long twos is also correlated to NBA three-point success. However, given his textbook form and above-average height at 6’8, I believe that Galloway’s shooting is more likely than not to translate at the next level.
DEFENSE:
In addition to his formidable offensive capabilities, Kyrin Galloway is also an exceptional defender. In particular, Galloway is a superb rim protector. He has an unbelievable 8.5% block rate, which by far leads the data sample. In fact, he ranks in the 98th percentile for this stat despite being well under 7 feet tall. This is a testament to his aforementioned high IQ and athleticism. While 3&D players are certainly good defenders, rarely do you find such players with the blocking acumen that Galloway possesses. He has an opportunity to truly redefine the stretch four position.
Galloway’s effectiveness as a high-level defender is further supported through a number of defensive advanced stats. He has a defensive rating of 92.8, ranking in the 87th percentile nationwide. He led the Southern Conference with 1.02 blocks per personal foul, showing that he can have a sizeable defensive impact without getting into foul trouble. Additionally, he was among the top tenth of the NCAA with a Defensive Box Plus-Minus rating of 2.6.
Finally, Galloway has the physical measurements to succeed at the next level. He stands 6’8 and 215 pounds, and he has a monster wingspan. This, along with his shot-blocking abilities and remarkable athleticism, suggests that he has the ability to guard multiple positions. Overall, it’s clear that Kyrin Galloway has immense potential on the defensive end. He has the tools and intangibles to be successful at the next level.
OVERALL:
Galloway ranked ninth overall in 3&Dtend with a score of 0.00624. He’s a far better defender than most players in the data sample, yet he still ranks highly on offense. Furthermore, Galloway has demonstrated that he can also be a threat at the rim on offense and defense, setting himself apart from other 3&D players. Overall, with his unique skillset and excellence on both ends of the court, I believe that Galloway has what it takes to be a capable NBA 3&D player. Though there are definitely some concerns about his game, NBA teams should still give Galloway a shot. He has virtually no NBA hype as of now, and he’s likely on very few teams’ radars. In my mind, the potential reward of an effective 3&D player outweighs the minuscule risk of taking a late-round flier on Galloway. NBA teams need to wake up and put Kyrin Galloway on their draft board.