Should’ve held off on Strider live under or else Tuesday would’ve been far more profitable! We are 2-1 on lives so the process is there. Back to the lab we go!
Be sure to follow @wyexpect and turn in notifications – on top of picks I have started keeping an eye on live lines (gave out Bieber Sunday)
Johan Oviedo O4.5 Ks -124
*TEX strikes out 25.7% vs RHP in L30
*TEX allows 10th most Ks in L3 (9)
*There are 6 strike out targets in today’s lineup
Initially I would not be so trusting of Oviedo but considering the strike out rate and who is in the lineup – this should be a ‘no-sweat’.
Cal Quantrill U4.5 Ks -134
*CWS strike out 21.5% vs RHP in L30
*CWS allow 10th least Ks in L3 (8)
*3 strike out targets in today’s lineup
Quantrill is not normally a strike out pitcher and this line may be indicated by the lineup – regardless the under is the move.
Christian Walker / Bryce Harper 1+ Hit Each +117
*Walker has hit well vs Suarez & mashes LHP
*Harper has hit well vs Gallen & mashes RHP
Anthony DeSclafani O4.5 Ks -148
*MIN allows most Ks in L3 (13.33)
*MIN strikes out 25.5% vs RHP in L30
*Every hitter is essentially a target in this one – roll with the over for easy money.
I am projecting Desclafani touch nearly 8 Ks this game – take the bankroll and run on this line.
Pitcher parlay +1350
*Each pitcher above is listed in a plus situation to rack up the Ks – sprinkled on this one.
Ben Lively U3.5 Ks -110
*STL strikes out 20.4% vs RHP in L30
*Only one hitter in the lineup is a strike out target
Lively line is low but what he did against the Yankees is an outlier – Cardinals should mash against him.
Nestor Cortes U5.5 Ks -124
*BAL strikes out 17.3% vs LHP in L30
*Only 1 strike out target in the lineup
Cortes projection in this game is at 5 in the model – rolling with the numbers here.
Kodai Senga O6.5 Ks -108
*CHC strikes out 25.6% vs RHP in L30
*CHC strikes out 2nd most in L3 (11)
*5 strike out targets in today’s lineup
Senga has been on a strike out run as of late & against this lineup I don’t see 7 being a sweat – let’s ride!
Harold Ramirez / Aaron Judge 1+ Hit Each -127
*Ramirez has hit well vs Kikuchi & mashes LHP
* Judge hits well vs Wells & mashes RHP
Tyler Anderson U4.5 Ks -143
*BOS strikes out 21.3% vs LHP in L30
*Only two batters in today’s lineup are strike out targets
Anderson isn’t a strike out pitcher by most metrics – pair that with a team like Boston. Take the bankroll & run.
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