NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2021

Vegas, like the rest of us, are trying real hard to learn about these NFL teams this season. In Week 1, 12 underdogs covered, nine actually won the game outright. Last week, only 7 covered as the faves looked to come back to form winning – and covering – nine of the 16 contests.

As customary, here are some updated/new NFL nuggets for you all to use or not use although I am very close to riding this U 45 wave blindly. But I should add the disclaimer here that nuggets are really here to add to your rationale in betting a side not be the main reason for doing so. Some games are just not worth touching whether it be the price or there being too much surrounding it – cough Tampa-New England. New week, new opportunity to win some bread. Let’s get it!

  • Every Sunday and Monday Night game has gone over thus far this season
  • 1:00PM Games are now 6-21 O/U, even the three games last week with a 50+ total all went under
  • Totals at and under 45 are 2-12 O/U
  • Teams that are 0-3 ATS are 2-10 SU, the only 1-2 ATS teams with a winning record are Baltimore and San Francisco

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3


Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3, 0-3 ATS, 1-2 O/U) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-1, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U)

Line: CIN -7.5 | Total: O/U 46

Actual: TBD

Pick: Joe Mixon O 86.5 -114 1.5 units (Alex), 1Q U 9.5 -120 and/or 1H U 23.5 -115 LEAN (Ty)

Joe Mixon is the best current value for Thursday Night’s props. With a large opportunity share in the backfield and the Jaguars defense allowing over 115.7 yards per game, this is a great line. Trevor Lawrence and the Jags offense has been a turnover machine on offense so additional drives for the Bengals bodes well to cover. – Alex

As the total peeks out just above my lovely 45 threshold, I most likely will be sitting this one out. If for some reason you are interested in playing this game I would lean towards the under early. If Cincy jumps out to a big lead, Jacksonville may be throwing all over the place in the second half. Last week was Jacksonville’s first time with a halftime lead and even that ended in a 12-point loss for the Jags. While Cincy is 2-1 ATS, all three games have been as underdogs, and for this young squad it’ll be a test to see if they have learned how to win the games they are supposed to win – like this one. The only places to really play this are props or first quarter/first half action. It’s a lean that I’ll grab if I wanna feel ALIVE tonight but it’s 1Q U 9.5 -120 and/or first half U 23.5 -120 or U 23 -115. – Ty


Washington Football Team (1-2, 0-3 ATS, 2-1 O/U) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U)

Actual: TBD

Pick: Cordarrelle Patterson O29.5 Rec Yards -114 1.5U (Alex)

Patterson is going against a stout Washington defense but I like his usage in recent weeks. This line should be higher so definitely think this is a must bet. In his last two games Matt Ryan has targeted 14 times and has had 58 yards and 82 yards receiving respectively. Patterson looks to continue to be a constant fixture in this offense. – Alex

Houston Texans (1-2, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U) at Buffalo Bills (2-1, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U)

Actual: TBD

Pick: U 47 LEAN (Ty)

There haven’t been many double-digit (either opening or closing line) spreads thus far this season. Yet the favorite has hit all of them…except for Houston who covered against Cleveland – which was my lean in Week 2’s Picks Against the Spread. It’s a lot tougher to go back to the Texans well given their injuries. But 17.5 is really juicy. I am staying very far away from this but am pulling for Houston to cover just because of the blatant disrespect. -Ty

Detroit Lions (0-3, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U) at Chicago Bears (1-2, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U)

Actual: TBD

Pick: D’Andre Swift O38.5 Rec Yards -114 1.5U (Alex), U 42 1U (Shood)

Swift continues to put up numbers through the air. He has yet to put less than 51 yards receiving in a game and I see this trend continuing. Coach Campbell says they will get Swift even more involved, don’t overthink it – Alex

Lord, both offenses are just horrible. All the numbers point to the under here. As much as I don’t like feeling like it’s a easy play there’s nothing that’s convincing me to go over. The under is 7-0 in bears last 7 home games vs a team with a losing record. Let’s ride it! -Shood

Carolina Panthers (3-0, 3-0 ATS, 0-3 O/U) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1, 3-0 ATS, 2-1 O/U)

Actual: TBD

Pick: 1Q U 10 -108 and/or 1H U 26.5 -125 LEAN (Ty)

This is Carolina’s moment to show they’re legit. The Panthers defense heads to Jerry’s World to take on an explosive offense in Dak and company. But the real story here is going to be Carolina’s offense vs Dallas’ defense. Dan Quinn’s unit looked like Swiss cheese in Week 1 against Tampa but has actually improved over the past few weeks as the Chargers and Eagles only scored 17 and 21 points, respectively. I’d lean the under early, 1Q being at 10 and the 1H being at 26.5 if you’re looking for action in this matchup of two undefeated ATS squads. -Ty

Indianapolis Colts (0-3, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U) at Miami Dolphins (1-2, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U)

Actual: TBD

Pick: Colts +2 LEAN , Teaser Play w/BAL 2U (Ty)

Indy made my teaser, boosting the line up to +8.5. Outside of Wentz’s health – he did play in Week 3 – the Colts have been a snake-bitten. Taking their 8 year run of losing Week 1 games out of it, they fought well against the Rams at home and had the tall task of taking on a Titans team that’s found their groove. With Tua’s injury, I do like the Phins passing attack a bit more with former Colt Jacoby Brissett under center. But this is the week for the Colts to finally get a win and makeup ground at least as the second-place team in the AFC South. I would advise going the teaser route here, as the line itself of +2 is only a lean for me. -Ty

Cleveland Browns (2-1, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U) at Minnesota Vikings (1-2, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U)

Actual: TBD

Pick: Nick Chubb O82.5 Rush Yards -114 1U (Alex), ML Parlay w/Chiefs -120 3U (Shood)

Nick Chubb has been a model of consistency this season while going over this line each game. Vikings are allowing 119+ rush yards per game so another no brainer. Browns should handle the Vikings thus putting forth the game script to ensure this line covers – Alex

This is a narrative play. I just don’t see Tom Brady losing to a ROOKIE QB. -Shood

New York Giants (0-3, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U) at New Orleans Saints (2-1, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U)

Actual: TBD

Pick: NYG +7 LEAN (Ty)

This is my last week having a modicum of faith in the Giants. I’m still unsure on what I think about New Orleans, unsure enough to feel decent about Big Blue’s chance at covering. Actually I had this written down on my list as I was creating my teasers but it just missed the cut. So it’ll make my lean for this week. This game also fell for our U 45 trap card BUT I think this can go over – especially if we’re getting good Jameis this week. It’s now or never New York Football Giants! -Ty

Tennessee Titans (2-1, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U) at New York Jets (0-3, 0-3 ATS, 0-3 O/U)

Actual: TBD

Pick: Titans -6 LEAN (Ty)

Poor Jettles. At some point they won’t be the team to pick on, but that’s exactly what I’ve done picking Denver in my Survivor pool last week and Tennessee for this one. With every Titan receiver being out this week, the Jets should really put all 11 men in the box to try to stop Derrick Henry – which still might not be enough. If you can get Tennessee at -6, take it. – Ty

Kansas City Chiefs (1-2, 0-3 ATS, 2-1 O/U) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-2, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U)

Actual: TBD

Pick: Mahomes rushing O 14.5 -110 0.5U (Ty), ML Parlay w/CLE -120 3U (Shood)

The issue isn’t KC being 1-2 and in the basement of the AFC West. The issue isn’t even KC being 0-3 ATS. The problem is it’s been 3 weeks of nastiness. They trailed the entire game in Week 1 only to come back at the end for their first lead in the game. And an 11pt lead at the end of three against Baltimore was chipped away at to give Lamar his first win vs the Chiefs. Week 3 saw the Chargers continue to play KC tight as they pulled away late to clinch the upset. If this game is anything like those, expect shenanigans. Philly looked yucky last week against Dallas and had they played better, I’d be all over them sending the Chiefs to 0-4 ATS. But I have no idea how to call this. Because it’s so low, give me Mahomes’ player prop in rushing yards – O 14.5 -110. -Ty

The Chiefs starting 1-3? Yeah Mahomes is going to have a field day against the Eagles. -Shood


Arizona Cardinals (3-0, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U) at Los Angeles Rams (3-0, 2-1 ATS, 3-0 O/U)

Actual: TBD

Pick: Cardinals +4 LEAN, Cooper Kupp O 84.5 Receiving LEAN , Cooper Kupp Anytime TD -155 3U (Ty)

Even though they tried to scare me, Arizona came through to cover against the Jags. With this being the real showdown to show they’re ready to take the next step I’m going to lean Cardinals to cover. The Rams are good but at some point they have to come back down to earth. Also because I’ve been eating with him on fantasy, I’ll suggest joining in on my fun with Cooper Kupp’s Any Time Touchdown Scorer -155 or go with his receiving prop if the TD prop is too expensive, 84.5 -110. -Ty

Seattle Seahawks (1-2, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U) at San Francisco 49ers (2-1, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U)

Actual: TBD

Pick: SEA +3 1U (Shood)

I don’t really know how to call this and Vegas doesn’t either with the Niners only being favored by -2.5. We just don’t know who Seattle is just yet quite frankly. I still like San Francisco even with the Packers loss, but in divisional matchups anything can happen. I expect Seattle to right their wrongs here and it’s tough to feel great about whatever the hell is going on with 49er running backs. This is a lovely price to lay the points with the Seahawks if you like them. I’ll be sitting this one out, even though this feels like a sure under. -Ty

Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 week 4 games.  I don’t see them falling 1-3 and I expect a motivated Wilson to keep the team afloat. -Shood

Baltimore Ravens (2-1, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U) at Denver Broncos (3-0, 3-0 ATS, 0-3 O/U)

Actual: TBD

Pick: BAL +1 LEAN, Teaser Play w/IND 2U (Ty)

This was a tough one to fade Denver. I don’t think their success was solely based on playing the Jags, Giants, and Jets. Teddy Two Gloves is a great game manager where if you give him a supporting cast he’ll win games your team should win and be competitive in games against superior talent. With that said, I do expect a close one and I think the spread being essentially a pick ‘em all week is right on the money. After just eeking out a win against Detroit, I think Baltimore comes in focused to come out of Denver with the win. This also made my teaser and I think that’s the strongest play here. – Ty

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2, 1-2 ATS, 0-3 O/U) at Green Bay Packers (2-1, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U)

Actual: TBD

Pick: Davante Adams O92.5 Rec Yards -114 1U (Alex)

Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers have made week 1 look like just a ‘get the rust off’ type of game. He has posted 121 and 132 yards receiving in the last two weeks while being targeted 9 and 18 times respectively. Steelers defense is good but if the offense continues to stall, Adams should take advantage of a gassed secondary. – Alex


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1, 2-1 ATS, 3-0 O/U) at New England Patriots (1-2, 1-2 ATS, 0-3 O/U)

Actual: TBD

Pick: Tom Brady O2.5 Pass TD -114 1U (Alex), Fournette O 47.5 Rushing -113 0.5U (Ty)

I am never the biggest fan of the ‘revenge game’ narrative but this is different. Brady’s hall of fame career as a Patriot is one that goes down in history. Brady will want to make a statement as he will also be hitting a passing yard milestone. Rams kept Brady in check but the Pats defense won’t have the same success. . – Alex

There’s what I think as someone that’s been watching the season for 4 weeks and what I think as a fan. As a fan, I’m a bit nervous. I think we get the dub but I’m concerned about Brady going up against Belichick the defensive wizard. The fan me would tell you to take the points for the Pats. As someone that’s been watching the season, I don’t think New England is very good offensively. This sets up that New England is great holding on to a lead but not quite if you’re asking them to come back from a deficit. For my sake, I hope Tampa can get the ground game working. When you play good teams, like we did last week against the Rams, being one-dimensional only helps the opponent. I’ll lean Lombardi Lenny’s rushing prop here. -Ty


Las Vegas Raiders (3-0, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-1, 2-1 ATS, 0-3 O/U)

Actual: TBD

Pick: Mike Williams O75.5 Rec Yards -114 1U (Alex), O 51.5 1U (Ty)

Williams has had a breakout campaign as his role in the offense has changed. With the continued involvement in the game plan I expect Monday night to continue with the trend. His lowest total was 82 yards receiving against Washington. While Las Vegas is undefeated, Chargers offense should have their way. Take Williams to keep it going. – Alex

At this point on the Kool-Aid train with the Raiders. I don’t know how they’re pulling these performances off but I’m here with my ticket. This is a tough matchup against a division rival on the road but I was out here shooting my shot anyway taking them in my spread pool. Since I feel like Pats-Bucs will put an end to our Sunday Night Football over streak, give me the over in this to keep the Monday Night trend alive. -Ty