NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2021

Happy Thanksgiving! On behalf of all of us at What You Expect, we are certainly thankful for you the viewer for rocking with us, and especially you bettors that tune into to this column every week.

As always, tail at your own risk – and let us know how we did. Follow the crew on the Bird App: Alex, Dwa, Shood, Ty. Best of luck – happy holidays – and let’s make some money!

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Week 11


Chicago Bears (3-7, 4-6 ATS, 3-7 O/U) at Detroit Lions (0-9-1, 6-4 ATS, 3-7 O/U)

Line: CHI -3 | Total: O/U 41.5

Actual: CHI 16-14

Pick: David Montgomery O79.5 Rush Yards -114 1.14U (Alex), Hockenson Anytime TD +210 LEAN, Swift O 4.5 receptions +100 1U (Ty)

One of Montgomery’s two 100 yard games was against the Lions and I like him to get close in this matchup as well. Lions allow 105 yards to opposing running backs so I see the Bears leaning on running game. With no Fields and Dalton’s lack of rushing prowess – Montgomery should be a key factor for the Bears to get the win. – Alex

For the Thanksgiving slate, at least for this column, I’m joining Alex on the props train. If I have any 1Q bets, check my Twitter – linked above – tomorrow. In this game I like Hockenson anytime. He scored the first two weeks of the season and hasn’t since so he’s long overdue and is the only truly reliable target Detroit has going for them. That’s a lean for me but what I will most definitely play is Swift’s catch prop which he’s hit in 6 of the Lions’ 10 games. He’s had at least 3 catches in every game and racks up a ton of targets so this is a nice lil bet and at plus money. – Ty

Las Vegas Raiders (5-5, 4-6 ATS, 5-5 O/U) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3, 8-2 ATS, 5-5 O/U)

Line: DAL -7.5 | Total: O/U 51.5

Actual: LV 36-33

Pick: Tony Pollard O14.5 Rec Yards -114 1.14U (Alex), Gallup Anytime TD +150 LEAN, Pollard O 9.5 rushing attempts -125 1U (Ty)

Pollard has covered this in 5 of last 6 games. Although Elliot gets looks in the passing game, I expect Pollard to get some designed plays with Cooper out and Lamb banged up if he even plays. – Alex

With no Amari Cooper and as of Wednesday night CeeDee is questionable to play, Gallup steps to the plate in an increased role. Anytime TD props are a true gamble so I’m always going to lean those even if I play it – which I am on this one. Like Alex, I like Tony Pollard a lot, and while I like his rushing prop too I’m going for his carries prop which he’s hit in 6 of Dallas’ 10 games. – Ty

Buffalo Bills (6-4, 6-4 ATS, 5-5 O/U) at New Orleans Saints (5-5, 5-5 ATS, 6-4 O/U)

Line: BUF -6 | Total: O/U 45

Actual: BUF 31-6

Pick: Tre’Quan Smith O39.5 Rec Yards -114 1.14U (Alex), Diggs Anytime TD +120 LEAN, Josh Allen O 33.5 rushing yards -120 LEAN, Sanders O 40.5 receiving yards -115 1U (Ty)

Smith enters into a tough matchup against the Bills but there uneven play makes me like his line. Smith has had at least 44 yards in his last 3 games since returning from injury while having targets of 4, 7, 8 in that span. Smith has been playing well and Siemian has been exceeding expectations. – Alex

Again Anytime TD props are going to be a lean but man I was close to putting a unit on this one as Stefon Diggs has a TD in 4 of the Bills’ last 5 games including two tuddies in Buffalo’s last outing. If you don’t want to go that route, look to Buffalo’s other receiver – Emmanuel Sanders – who has gone over his receiving prop of 40.5 in 7 of 10 games. Another lean is Josh Allen’s rushing prop of 33.5 which he has gone over in 6 of the Bills’ 10 games. I’ll definitely play the Sanders one but we’ll see how I’m doing come 8 o’ clock as to if I play these leans as well. – Ty

Check back for updated lines and analysis for the remainder of the Week 12 slate


Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4-1, 4-6 ATS, 4-6 O/U) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-4, 5-5 ATS, 4-6 O/U)

Line: CIN -4.5 | Total: O/U 45

Actual: CIN 41-10


Lean Cincy here but in game two of a divisional match anything goes but this would be a huge win for the Bungles. – Ty

New York Jets (2-8, 2-8 ATS, 6-4 O/U) at Houston Texans (2-8, 5-5 ATS, 4-6 O/U)

Line: HOU -2.5 | Total: O/U 44.5

Actual: NYJ 21-14

Pick: Zach Wilson U235.5 Pass Yards -114 1.14U (Alex)

Wilson makes his return to the field after an extended absence from an injury. In his first 6 games he has only reached over 236 passing yards in 2 of those matchups. With him being a rookie and the rust that may occur with an extended absence – I like the under here. The Texans play different with Tyrod Taylor at QB so I expect the Texans to keep the Jets passing game in check. – Alex

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3, 4-6 ATS, 5-5 O/U) at Indianapolis Colts (6-5, 7-4 ATS, 7-4 O/U)

Line: TB -3 | Total: O/U 53

Actual: TB 38-31

Pick: Mike Evans Anytime TD +100 0.5U, Chris Godwin Anytime TD +100 0.5U (Ty)

You can essentially take either one of these or both every week. Godwin has registered a touchdown in 3 of the last 4 games and is a sure bet especially while AB is out. There have only been 4 games this season Mike Evans failed to score a TD, and he is tied with Cooper Kupp for the league lead with 10. – Ty

Atlanta Falcons (4-6, 4-6 ATS, 5-5 O/U) at New York Jets (2-8, 4-6 ATS, 2-8 O/U)

Line: ATL -2.5 | Total: O/U 46

Actual: ATL 21-14


Carolina Panthers (5-6, 5-6 ATS, 4-7 O/U) at Miami Dolphins (4-7, 5-6 ATS, 4-7 O/U)

Line: CAR -2 | Total: O/U 42

Actual: MIA 33-10

Pick: CAR -2.5 +100 1U (Ty)

The pick here is more so about not a big believer in Miami than it is being charged up about Carolina. But another week getting more comfortable with the Panthers playbook for Cam and facing a team that’s offensively anemic should be a recipe for success. – Ty

Tennessee Titans (8-3, 7-4 ATS, 6-5 O/U) at New England Patriots (7-4, 7-4 ATS, 5-6 O/U)

Line: NE -7 | Total: O/U 44

Actual: NE 36-13

Pick: Kendrick Bourne O34.5 Rec Yards -112 1.12U (Alex), D’Onta Foreman O 8.5 Rec Yards -117 0.5U, D’Onta Foreman O 1.5 Receptions +126 0.5U, Ryan Tannehill U 212.5 Passing Yards LEAN (Ty)

Bourne has really come into his own in the last 6 weeks. He has had 4 receptions in all but 1 game (3 rec) and has covered in all but 1 (34 yards). His involvement with the offense and his chemistry with Mac Jones should get this total. Titans allow the 10th most passing yards and will most likely be gassed as their top 2 receivers and running back are out. – Alex

Apparently every Titan is hurt today as if this is what they needed going up to Foxborough to face the REALLY HAWT Patriots. With the brand of defense Bill is known for this is heavy on running back receiving props, which are disrespectfully low. Plus I like Tannehill’s passing prop under too but I’ll lean that. – Ty

Philadelphia Eagles (5-6, 6-5 ATS, 6-5 O/U) at New York Giants (3-7, 5-5 ATS, 3-6-1 O/U)

Line: PHI -3.5 | Total: O/U 45.5

Actual: NYG 13-7

Pick: Miles Sanders O65.5 Rush Yards -112 1.12 U (Alex), U 9.5 1Q -120 1U (Ty)

Sanders returned from his injury to a full workload. After a season long question regarding his usage, Sirianni finally allowed him to ‘cook’ and he came through with 94 yards (5.88 ypc). Giants allow the 10th most rushing yards per game and I expect Sirianni to keep the usage – Jordan Howard, who has made a resurgence since resigning with the Eagles, is out this week. – Alex

First quarter NFL totals have my heart. And there’s a few totals out there ranging from 8.5 on Barstool and 9 on DraftKings but every point matters so snagging 9.5 on FanDuel or WynnBet is the way to go here as two divisional opponents hopefully 3 and out their way to a low scoring first quarter. – Ty


Los Angeles Chargers (6-4, 5-5 ATS, 4-5-1 O/U) at Denver Broncos (5-5, 5-5 ATS, 2-8 O/U)

Line: LAC -2.5 | Total: O/U 48

Actual: DEN 28-13

Pick: Austin Ekeler O34.5 Rec Yards -109

Dwa has been bullying me calling me Public Nancy and I feel very Public Nancy liking the Chargers in this game ?. I picked them in my spread pool so I won’t make a play here too but plz send prayers, I’M FIGHTING FOR MY LIFE! – Ty

Ekeler comes in this week after scoring 4 times – 2 from the ground and 2 from the air. Against a strong Broncos secondary I expect Hebert to check down to his back early and often. Ride the hot hand. – Alex

Los Angeles Rams (7-3, 4-6 ATS, 5-4-1 O/U) at Green Bay Packers (8-3, 9-2 ATS, 3-8 O/U)

Line: LAR -1 | Total: O/U 47

Actual: GB 36-28


I’ll come back closer to 4PM with more thoughts but I like GB here. – Ty

Minnesota Vikings (5-5, 6-4 ATS, 5-5 O/U) at San Francisco 49ers (5-5, 4-6 ATS, 5-5 O/U)

Line: SF -3 | Total: O/U 48.5

Actual: SF 34-26


Minny or pass. This just sounds like a Kirk Cousins is elite kinda week. Again come back closer to 4PM for my picks here. – Ty


Cleveland Browns (6-5, 5-6 ATS, 6-5 O/U) at Baltimore Ravens (7-3, 4-6 ATS, 5-5 O/U)

Line: BAL -3.5 | Total: O/U 46

Actual: TBD

Pick: BAL 16-10

I have no clue where to go here. Baltimore could be on fire here or this could be Baker balling out to stick it to Colin Cowherd. I hope both teams have fun. – Ty


Seattle Seahawks (3-7, 5-5 ATS, 2-8 O/U) at Washington Football Team (4-6, 3-7 ATS, 5-5 O/U)

Line: SEA -1 | Total: O/U 46.5

Actual: WAS 17-15

Pick: SEA -1 -108 1U (Ty) Taylor Heinicke O21.5 Pass Comp -110 1.1U (Alex)

I think I had Seattle in my spread pool. They’re bad but Washington is worse and Russ’ folks should be in attendance so he might be outchea tryna restore the feeling. – Ty

Wilson and the Seahawks have struggled since his return so this looks like a great pivot point to come out strong. With that in mind I expect Washington to throw a ton to keep up. Heinicke has covered in 4 of last 5 and the Seahawks in 11 games have only given up lass than 22 completions in only 1 game. – Alex